The rest belonged to the people responsible for making the investment decision.
And for the first time since the wager, she felt that the story might finally be moving toward the truth rather than toward another argument about who deserved to speak.
The Truth Comes to the Table
The decisive meeting took place eleven days later.
By then, Hale Urban Holdings had commissioned an independent review of the financial model, and the investors had received additional documentation concerning the infrastructure agreement and the revised environmental estimate.
The review did not produce the catastrophe some people had feared.
Nor did it produce the clean bill of health Victor had wanted.
It produced something less dramatic and more useful.
A realistic picture.
The independent advisers confirmed that the original model had not fully incorporated the revised remediation estimate. They also concluded that the infrastructure guarantee's conditions needed to be reflected more clearly in the financing assumptions.
The project remained potentially viable.
But the original timetable was too aggressive, the contingency reserve required adjustment, and the financing arrangements needed to be revised before the investment could proceed on the terms initially proposed.
The advisers found no conclusive evidence that the discrepancies had been created with the specific intention of misleading the investors.
They did, however, identify failures in the company's review and approval process.
Documents had been circulated before all material updates were reconciled.
Responsibility for the final model had not been clearly assigned.
The executive summary had been approved without sufficient confirmation that it reflected the amended agreements.
Those failures mattered.
They also explained why several people inside the company had believed the project was ready when it was not.
On the morning of the meeting, Victor sat in a conference room with Henry Lin, Michael Zhou, David Chen, Richard Cole, Peter Lawson, Margaret Ellis, and the independent advisers.
The updated financial model appeared on a large screen.
Victor had spent the previous night reviewing the revised projections.
The numbers were less attractive than the original presentation.
The projected return had declined.
The contingency reserve had increased.
The financing schedule had been extended.
The investors would need stronger protections before releasing the full amount of their proposed capital.
But the project was not dead.
That fact should have relieved him.
Instead, he felt a mixture of anger and humiliation.
The original presentation had made the development look nearly ready.
The revised model showed that important work remained.
And the person who had first identified the problem was the waitress he had offered fifty thousand dollars to humiliate.
He looked around the table.
Henry Lin opened the meeting.
“Thank you for attending. We have reviewed the independent assessment and the revised financial model. I believe we now have a clearer understanding of the project's current position.”
Victor nodded.
“We appreciate the additional review.”
Henry continued.
“The project remains attractive in several respects. The location has potential, the demand assumptions are reasonable within certain limits, and the development could provide meaningful economic benefits.”
Victor leaned forward slightly.
“But the financing conditions need to be revised,” Henry said. “We cannot proceed under the original assumptions.”
Victor's jaw tightened.
“What terms are you proposing?”
Henry placed a document on the table.
“The investment would be staged. The first release of capital would be conditional on completion of the updated infrastructure agreement, confirmation of the remediation budget, and approval of a revised financial model. Further releases would depend on specified milestones.”
Victor scanned the document.
“That would delay the project.”
“Yes.”
“It would increase financing costs.”
“Possibly.”
“It would require us to renegotiate several agreements.”
“Yes.”
Victor looked up.
“You understand that those changes could affect the economics of the entire development.”
Henry met his gaze.
“We do. That is why we are proposing them before committing the capital.”
Michael Zhou spoke.
“We are not asking you to eliminate every risk. We are asking you to identify the risks, price them appropriately, and establish safeguards.”
David Chen added, “We are also asking for a clear approval process so that the next model reflects the latest information.”
Peter Lawson nodded.
“I support that.”
Victor turned toward him.
“You do?”
“Yes,” Peter said. “The revised model is more defensible. It gives us a better basis for planning.”
Richard Cole spoke next.
“I agree. We should also assign a single owner for the financial model and require formal reconciliation whenever a material assumption changes.”
Margaret Ellis added that the company needed a documented process for ensuring that investor materials matched the latest approved agreements.
Victor looked around the room.
Everyone appeared to have reached the same conclusion.
He was the only person still arguing with the fact that the original plan had been inadequate.
He felt the familiar urge to take control of the conversation.
To explain why the project had been delayed.
To remind everyone that construction schedules were complicated, that environmental estimates changed, and that the company had a long record of successful developments.
All of those statements were true.
None of them answered the question before him.
Was he willing to revise the project based on what the evidence now showed?
Henry waited.
Finally, Victor closed the document.
“I need to review the proposed terms with my team.”
“Of course,” Henry said. “We are prepared to continue negotiations. But we will not release the capital until the revised conditions are satisfied.”
Victor nodded.
The meeting continued for another hour.
They discussed the schedule, the contingency reserve, the reporting requirements, and the responsibilities of the various parties.